According to the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO) , El Buen Fin 2025 could exceed 200 billion pesos (mdp) in sales , which would mean a 16% increase compared to the 2024 edition.
Considering the above and that e-commerce represents 25% of current sales, it is important to understand the patterns that organized crime uses to commit crimes such as cargo theft , and which merchandise they target during peak seasons such as El Buen Fin, which will celebrate its 15th anniversary this year and will take place from November 13 to 17.
Luis Villatoro, director of Supply Chain Security & Intelligence Latam at Overhaul , recalled that, according to the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco Servytur) , during El Buen Fin 2024 the most purchased products were electronic devices with 79.4%, clothing and footwear with 15.9%, and white goods and appliances with 4.7 percent .
In the webinar Cargo Thefts in El Buen Fin: What You Need to Know , conducted by Overhaul, Villatoro emphasized the importance of understanding this consumption pattern, since practically 80% of sales were of appliances and electronics, which consequently become a target for criminal groups.
The specialist stated that during November, as a result of El Buen Fin sales, the movement of goods across the country increased by between 20% and 30%.
“Over the past three years, Overhaul’s trend analysis shows that during the El Buen Fin weekend, cargo theft activity in Mexico decreases by 28% and subsequently increases by up to 36%,” he emphasized.
During November, cargo theft in the country increased by 7.6% compared to the monthly trend. Some of the most affected hot products, which could present seasonal increases in cargo theft, are electronics, such as screens, video game consoles, and cell phones , which have an increased risk of up to 38%. “That is, there is a traditional trend regarding the participation of theft in this type of sector,” Villatoro noted.
Appliances are another type of merchandise with increases of up to 29%, clothing and footwear with growth of up to 15%, and auto parts, specifically tires and wheels, with an increase of up to 8 percent.
According to the analysis, delivery van theft is estimated to increase by 19% nationwide in November , driven by the use of these types of vehicles to supply department stores and shopping centers, as well as for last-mile deliveries.
Regarding spatial patterns during this peak season , the states that have historically had the highest incidence of cargo theft with potential increases are, with 31% representative nationwide, the State of Mexico with a risk of increase of 3%.
Also, Puebla with increases of up to 6%, San Luis Potosí with 12%, Jalisco with 8% and Tlaxcala with an increase of up to 9 percent.
Meanwhile, it is estimated that the highways that will likely show the greatest risk are Mexico City-Veracruz with 14%, Mexico City-Saltillo with 11%, Mexico City-Pachuca with 7%, Arco Norte with 6%, Circuito Exterior Mexiquense with 4%, Avenida Jesús Reyes Heroles with 3%, and Atlacomulco-Zapotlanejo with 2%.
Regarding time patterns during El Buen Fin, Villatoro explained that 73% of robberies are projected to occur between Tuesday and Friday , while the most vulnerable times would be between 4:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. with 27% of the incidence, as well as between 7:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. with 25 percent.
Meanwhile, delivery van thefts are likely to increase by 17% during the last quarter of 2025, according to an analysis of trends over the past three years, due to the increase in merchandise movement due to El Buen Fin 2025 and the Christmas celebrations.
It is expected that 49% of delivery van thefts will occur in the metropolitan areas of the States of Mexico, Jalisco, and Puebla , with the main sectors affected being packaging, household appliances, clothing, and footwear, among others.
Among the measures to reduce cargo theft, Luis Villatoro believes it is necessary to establish a program and identify which layer of electronic and physical security is most appropriate based on the value matrix.
“There are units where you can operate with 30 million pesos if you decide to add the highest levels of electronic security. You can install five GPS devices, a Bluetooth belt, perhaps two or three radio frequency devices, and you also have telematics video within the units, based on the contracts you have established with the service providers,” he emphasized.
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