Emerging markets, with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks, and sustainable investment in aviation, will play a key role in driving global air traffic growth, generating the need for 43,600 commercial aircraft over the next 20 years , 955 of which will be freighters .
According to Boeing , the US aircraft manufacturer, these markets will represent more than 50% of the global commercial fleet in 2044 , compared to nearly 40% in 2024.
Presenting its Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) 2025 study at the Paris Air Show, the company said it expects aircraft supply to match market demand by the end of the decade, allowing airlines to renew and expand their fleets.
“During the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled, while the commercial aviation industry faced significant challenges. Resilience will continue to be a hallmark of this growing industry as we see strong demand for new airplanes, with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing’s senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
Furthermore, risk reduction and diversification of global supply will increase demand for air cargo from the manufacturing sector as supply chains become multimodal across a broader geography.
“The expansion of e-commerce and express mail networks—especially in countries with large populations but nascent online retail markets—will provide a further boost to air cargo traffic. Considering these factors, the markets of South Asia, China, and Southeast Asia are poised for the fastest growth over the next 20 years,” he stated.
He mentioned that the continued growth in air cargo traffic and the need to replace outdated freighters with state-of-the-art aircraft will drive demand for factory-produced and converted freighters during this period.
In this regard, the global freighter fleet is expected to grow by approximately 67% , from 2,375 aircraft in 2024 to 3,975 aircraft in 2044.
Cargo aircraft deliveries are expected to total 2,900 , of which approximately 45% will replace retired aircraft, while the remainder will augment the fleet. Approximately two-thirds of all cargo aircraft deliveries will be converted passenger aircraft. Of these conversions, nearly 60% will be standard-body freighters.
The Asia-Pacific and North American regions will require the most freighter aircraft ; more than a third of all freighter demand will come from Asia-Pacific carriers, more than doubling the existing fleet. North American carriers will receive another third of planned deliveries, approximately two-thirds of which will replace older aircraft.
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