Over the next 20 years, the global freighter fleet is expected to grow to 3,900 aircraft , including new production and converted planes, due to the expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce, according to estimates by Boeing, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer.
The company said the air cargo market is above pre-pandemic levels , and this type of transport will grow by an average of 4% per year until 2043.
“As the fastest and most reliable way to move goods, the sustained growth of air cargo has returned the industry to its long-term trend. There will be many factors that will drive demand for freighters over the next 20 years,” said Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing for the company.
Announcing Boeing’s Global Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) 2024 , a biennial overview and long-term outlook for the industry , it said the global air cargo fleet is expected to grow to 3,900 aircraft by 2043 , a two-thirds increase from 2,340 freighters in 2023.
While nearly half of production and conversion deliveries will replace freighters being retired with more capable and fuel-efficient models, due to recent market needs, many older jets remain in operation.
He noted that driven by demand in high-growth Asian markets, the fleet of large wide-body freighters will almost double.
Meanwhile, markets in East and South Asia will see the largest year-on-year traffic growth, driven by expanding economies and consumer demand.
With the Asia-Pacific fleet set to nearly triple , carriers in that region will need the largest number of deliveries (980), closely followed by North America (955). These two regions will account for more than two-thirds of global deliveries.
Meanwhile, India’s domestic air cargo market is expected to nearly quadruple as express and e-commerce networks expand.
Express carriers , for their part, will serve a quarter of the air cargo market (increasing from the current 18%).
“This sector is poised to grow faster than the industry average due to the increasing role of e-commerce distribution and the expansion of express networks in emerging markets,” he said.
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