Following the contraction in economies and the closure of non-essential activities due to COVID-19, in recent years there has been an upturn in the movement of goods and merchandise due to the post-pandemic effects, as well as the increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stimulated by the relocation of manufacturing centers ( nearshoring ) to Mexico.
However, over the past year there has been a slowdown in trade with the United States and a halt to FDI. Today, both the national economy and that of our northern neighbor are undergoing a process of readjustment, which has caused a contraction in the movement of goods between the two countries. Although the causes are multifactorial, the recent elections in Mexico and the upcoming ones in the United States are key to observing a readjustment in economic dynamism.
BBVA Research points out that the figures accumulated through the first half of 2024 reveal that Mexico’s total trade balance was five billion dollars (mdd), a smaller deficit than that reached during the first half of the previous year by seven billion dollars, as a result of a total of exports of 299 billion dollars and imports of 305 billion dollars.
This phenomenon is rooted in the economic contraction caused by uncertainty over electoral issues. In addition, protectionist tendencies have been declared by both the candidates for the presidency of the United States and the Secretary of Economy in Mexico, Marcelo Ebrard, in the context of the upcoming review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC), according to Berta Martínez Cisneros, academic coordinator of the degree in International Logistics at CETYS University, Mexicali campus .
“At this moment, production is being recalibrated worldwide, markets have changed as have consumer expectations, perhaps we will see a reconfiguration, but I think it is a mix of factors that are generating this. Therefore, it is expected that there will be less demand for freight transport to the United States, which may affect Mexican companies. However, the effect would not occur this year but at the beginning of 2025,” the specialist shares.
Given the complex outlook, Martínez Cisneros admits that there is likely to be an imbalance in the auto transport industry. It is worth remembering that BBVA estimates indicate that the slow dynamism of consumption and investment could impact economic activity in 2025, registering a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.0 percent. For its part, Deloitte predicts that for next year the GDP of the United States will be at 1.5 percent.
