The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States is a recurring theme that has intensified as a result of the tariff and immigration policies promoted by the White House and the arrival of its new tenant.
Economic policy specialist Luis Foncerrada Pascal explained how the decisions made by the United States directly impact the Mexican economy and what measures would be necessary to counteract their effects, within the framework of the First Ordinary General Assembly of the Mexican Association of Freight Agents (Amacarga) .
The specialist commented that Trump ‘s trade policies , aimed primarily at reducing its trade deficit with countries such as Mexico, will have more harmful effects on the United States than beneficial, especially in key sectors such as steel and aluminum .
“Steel production in the United States fell by 1% in 2024, and aluminum production fell by 10%, despite tariffs imposed to protect these industries,” Foncerrada noted.
He stressed that, rather than achieving the goal of strengthening the U.S. domestic industry, these tariffs have only made products more expensive for consumers in both the United States and Mexico.
“Tariffs (taxes) are not going to work. What we will see is an increase in costs for the consumer without a real change in domestic production,” said Foncerrada.
One of the crucial topics discussed during the conference was also the growing problem of fentanyl and its relationship to the immigration and security policies implemented by the Donald Trump administration . Foncerrada explained that fentanyl, a highly lethal drug, continues to enter the United States from Mexico and China, despite efforts to reduce its trafficking.
According to the specialist, 55 million fentanyl pills were sold in 2024 , which is equivalent to 390 million lethal doses . He explained that this represents a significant threat to both public health in the United States and border security.
Foncerrada stressed that Trump’s policies , which have sought to control immigration and drug trafficking, are not enough to solve the fentanyl problem . He stressed the need for a broader approach that encompasses not only immigration policies, but also efforts to control fentanyl production, consumption in the United States, and distribution routes that connect several countries.
“A broader approach is required to address fentanyl production and distribution routes involving multiple countries, including Mexico,” Foncerrada said.
He stressed that border control alone cannot solve the problem.
Regarding migration , he made it clear that the United States cannot do without immigrant labor without facing serious economic consequences. He explained that eight million immigrants currently work in the United States, which represents approximately 5% of the American workforce , a fact that highlights the importance of this sector for the economic development of the neighboring country.
The economist explained that, due to the aging of the American population , migrants play a crucial role in sectors such as construction, agriculture and services , which depend on this flow of labor.
“The United States depends on immigrant labor for key sectors such as construction and services; without this flow, economic growth levels could not be sustained,” said Foncerrada.
The analysis of the US trade deficit also occupied an important place at the conference. For Foncerrada, this deficit is structural , and will not be solved through tariffs .
Despite protectionist policies, the economist explained that the United States continues to have a trade deficit because its investment exceeds its savings , a difference that trade tariffs will not be able to reverse.
“The only way to solve this deficit is not through tariffs, but by increasing savings or reducing investment. Without these measures, tariffs are not effective,” said Foncerrada, making it clear that current policies are not sufficient to address the underlying problem.
Another central theme of Foncerrada’s analysis was the crucial role of remittances sent by Mexican migrants in the United States. According to the specialist, in 2024 remittances reached 65 billion dollars , which represented 3.5% of Mexico’s GDP .
For him, without this constant flow of money, Mexico’s economic prospects would be much more complicated. He explained that without them, many families and communities would be in an “even more difficult” situation.
Automotive sector: tariffs threaten competitiveness
Regarding the automotive sector , Foncerrada commented that Mexico remains a key supplier for the US market, with 39% of the US automobile market coming from Mexican territory.
However, the specialist warned that tariffs on imports of Mexican products will affect the sector and could increase vehicle prices for American consumers, affecting both the competitiveness of the Mexican industry and costs in the American market.
Foncerrada said that tariff policies will not only impact trade, but will also generate a domino effect on final prices.
Finally, he concluded that, despite the obvious challenges facing the Mexican economy, economic cooperation between Mexico and the United States remains essential .
Foncerrada called for adjusting trade and migration policies to create a more balanced and mutually beneficial relationship. He stressed that current tensions should not hinder cooperation between the two nations.
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