Despite the escalating tariffs and the global economic restructuring, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected growth in the volume of global merchandise trade for 2025, although this year it will be lower than estimated due to the anticipated concentration of exports to the United States before the new tariffs went into effect on August 7.
The multilateral organization forecast a 0.9% increase in merchandise trade for this year, after having estimated a 0.2% decline last April. For 2026, the WTO projected a 1.8% increase , a decrease compared to the 2.5% forecast in April.
“Global trade has shown resilience in the face of persistent shocks, including recent tariff increases. Anticipated imports and improved macroeconomic conditions have provided a modest boost to the 2025 outlook,” noted WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
These positive forecasts could be affected by increased tariffs, which will ultimately impact trade, especially in 2026, the agency warned in its analysis.
“However, the full impact of the recent tariff measures is still unfolding. The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment, and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment,” added Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
The improved outlook for global merchandise trade is expected to be driven by an 11% year-over-year increase in U.S. imports in the first half of 2025, driven by inventory buildup and anticipated consolidation, although this earlier surge could lead to lower demand in the following months.
The global macroeconomic outlook is another factor that has influenced the upward forecast, as it is now more favorable. The depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies has also contributed, which could ease conditions for developing economies, the WTO emphasized.
The fall in oil prices should boost growth in manufacturing economies, the agency emphasized in its trade projections.
However, the higher reciprocal tariffs, which went into effect on August 7, are expected to increasingly impact U.S. imports and reduce exports from its trading partners in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
In this regard, the WTO forecast that North American exports will decline by 4.2% this year, although they could increase by 0.7% in 2026. Meanwhile, it projected an 8.3% drop in imports in 2025, as well as a 2.4% decline next year.
The US-led tariff war has impacted global trade. Although the WTO’s forecasts are positive, the organization estimated that the hardest hit from the early import of goods could be felt in 2026.
It’s worth remembering that the United States granted Mexico a new 90-day pause before the tariffs go into effect, scheduled for August 1.
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