Mexico’s industrial real estate market is going through a period of adjustment after growth driven by nearshoring (relocation of production lines), according to the Industrial Report for the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26) by Solili , a data and analysis platform dedicated to the real estate sector.
At the end of the July-September period of this year, space availability increased and construction decreased, amid greater caution from manufacturing companies . Despite this, demand remains strong, increasingly supported by logistics and warehousing activities .
Solili explained that the national industrial inventory reached 115.1 million square meters (m2) at the close of Q3 2026, a year-on-year increase of 5.5 million m2. In September, vacant space reached 6.3 million m2, equivalent to a national vacancy rate of 5.5 percent.
The figure contrasts with the historical low, which was 1.8% and was recorded in mid-2023. In this case, the increase has been visible above all in manufacturing markets : Tijuana reached a vacancy rate of 10.2%, while Reynosa, Monterrey and Ciudad Juárez closed at 7.3%, 7.0% and 6.0%, respectively.
Less construction in the face of greater availability
In this context, the adjustment was also reflected in the development of new spaces . Between January and September, construction began on 2.5 million m2, 35% less than in the same period of 2025. Thus, the total area under construction stood at 3.4 million m2 at the end of the third quarter , after exceeding 5.9 million at the end of 2024, a period in which it reached its historical peak.
Deliveries also began to decline. During the first nine months of the year, they totaled 3.5 million square meters, 30% below the five million recorded last year.
Logistics gains ground
Even with this scenario, leasing activity remains dynamic . Gross absorption reached 1.6 million square meters during the third quarter, 5% more than in the same period of 2015. At the same time, between January and September it accumulated four million square meters, an annual increase of 8 percent.
Solili identified a greater weight of logistics and warehousing activities in this demand, particularly in large urban centers, while manufacturing companies have moderated their investment and expansion decisions.
Mexico City accounted for 28% of gross national absorption during the quarter, followed by Monterrey and Guadalajara, with 14% each. Manufacturing saw significant activity, such as LEGO ‘s acquisition of nearly 50,000 m2 in Ciénega de Flores, Nuevo León, and Foxconn ‘s 87,000 m2 in two locations in El Salto, Jalisco.
Meanwhile, asking prices remain relatively stable despite increased availability. The national average closed at $7.67 per square meter per month, although Solili noted that in markets with higher vacancy rates, the gap between asking prices and final sale prices has widened.
Thus, the industrial market is reaching the end of the cycle with a less accelerated dynamic than during the nearshoring boom . Developers are slowing the pace of new construction due to greater availability, while demand continues to grow, with an increasingly important logistics and warehousing component.
The main image was generated using artificial intelligence.
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