Mexican air cargo reaches 2026 at a quiet but decisive turning point. After closing the January-October 2025 period with a 3.9% year-on-year contraction, according to the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) , the sector appears poised to resume its upward trend .
However, the growth projections—between 1% and 6%—depend less on global inertia and more on the country’s ability to correct the imbalances it created itself: the still unstable operation of the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) , the slow normalization of routes affected by US decisions, and the uncertain cargo scheduling policy at Mexico City International Airport (AICM) . Against this technical, regulatory, and geopolitical backdrop, the industry is attempting to recover a “flight plan” that was marked by turbulence in 2025.
Humberto López, head of Air Product at Eternity Group Mexico , admits that the conflict between China and the United States severely impacted the flow of goods to Mexico, especially e-commerce, but believes the cycle is changing. “The projection for Mexico aligns with that of IATA (International Air Transport Association) , which estimates global growth. For Mexico, it’s between 1% and 2%, compared to the 5% estimated by IATA globally . But the most important thing is that fares will be more stable,” he states.
The tariff adjustment, which anticipates peaks of between five and seven dollars for general cargo, will be a key indicator in a market where demand moves to the rhythm of the Chinese New Year and the reorganization of transpacific routes.
