Kenneth Smith, president of the Mexico-United States Bilateral Business Committee of the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) , warned that the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which will formally begin in 2026, will be complex, although he emphasized that there is broad support in the United States for extending the trade agreement
Smith, who participated last week in the hearing organized by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) , explained that the public consultation process received approximately 1,500 letters, of which “ more than 75% specifically address the need to extend the treaty for another 16 years .” Only 2% called for its cancellation.
However, he stressed that even sectors that support the USMCA raised concerns and areas for improvement.
“The vast majority of the comments are favorable, but they also include very specific recommendations on how to improve their operation and ensure compliance in all three countries ,” he said.
Among the points highlighted by US business organizations such as the Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable and the National Association of Manufacturers, is the monitoring of constitutional reforms in Mexico and their impact on the investment climate.
The report that the USTR is due to submit to the U.S. Congress in January is key to understanding the scope of the review. But today, its contents remain unclear. Smith indicated that there is tension between the administration and Congress , which is demanding transparency and a written document .
“We don’t know if the government will deliver a detailed report or if there will only be closed-door hearings. That is the question Congress has at this time ,” he emphasized.
That means the uncertainty could continue through the first quarter of 2026 and this could take all year or even extend into annual reviews in 2027 and 2028
In response to recent statements by US President Donald Trump about a possible withdrawal from the agreement, Smith emphasized that it is a low probability , and considered these messages as tools of negotiating pressure, rather than real threats.
In this regard, regarding the process, the specialist insisted that Mexico should not improvise .
“If the United States raises the issue, we can’t start thinking about what we’re going to do then. We have to work on it now ,” he said.
He also emphasized that Mexico, the United States, and Canada can use the review to promote common policies on two fronts: combating unfair trade practices and boosting strategic investments in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, medical equipment, and data centers .
“Mexico is indispensable for the United States to be able to compete successfully in the future with China and other regions of the world ,” he stated.
For his part, Antonio Ortiz Mena, president of the USMCA Technical Strategy Committee of Comce, complemented the vision.
“We have to see the USMCA review as riding a crazy mouse. There will be ups and downs and stops, but we’re going to reach our destination ,” he said.
For Ortiz Mena, Mexico’s central objective should be to reduce the uncertainty caused by unilateral actions by the United States , such as tariffs under section 232 or restrictions due to economic emergencies.
“Maintaining zero tariffs would be of little use if the United States continues to use these instruments; we need real certainty ,” he added.
He considered that, paradoxically, the international context opens up great opportunities for Mexico , where providing certainty and privileged access will be vital to being one of the most important destinations for foreign investment.
Both specialists agreed that the review of the USMCA does not imply an imminent risk of breakdown , but it does imply a prolonged period of intense negotiation.
“We don’t foresee a collapse of the treaty. We see a complex process, with political pressure, but also with a clear agenda to strengthen North American competitiveness ,” Smith emphasized.
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