The relocation of production lines in Mexico ( nearshoring ), as well as the growth of the logistics and industrial sectors have boosted the market for industrial spaces, which will be a trend in the construction sector by 2025, according to the company ESCALA.
In this regard, Javier Llaca , member of the ESCALA Advisory Council, highlighted that northern Mexico will continue to lead the industrial market, while the Bajío diversifies its activity towards new sectors and positions itself as a key logistics center .
“In the Bajío, growth continues to be driven by logistics. Cities such as León, Silao, Puerto Interior, Querétaro and San Luis Potosí are seeing a lot of activity in the logistics sector. The automotive industry, compared to other sectors, is beginning to diminish its role in this region, becoming less dependent on the automotive sector,” Llaca said.
In other regions such as the Valley of Mexico and the center of the country, Llaca highlighted good performance in logistics and light manufacturing.
The firm, which specializes in construction project management, identified nearshoring as a growth driver for next year and 2026, as it continues to be a key force for industrial development in Mexico.
“We think that nearshoring could increase by 25% in the next two years, and probably more by 2026,” said Javier Llaca, who added that this growth is supported by the increase in this phenomenon in the sector. “If we look back at 2024, nearshoring had a 12% share in the gross absorption of the entire industrial sector, but with more activity in expansions than in new companies,” he stressed.
In this sense, the arrival of anchor companies, such as BMW and Volvo , is fundamental in this process, since in addition to building their own ships, these companies attract first-class suppliers. “These automakers usually attract several suppliers who set up shop around them, either within the automaker’s premises or on nearby land,” Llaca said, and estimated that “the advanced technology industry, which is Mexico’s second largest exporter to the United States, will see a significant increase during the year.”
In the third quarter of 2024, Chinese companies’ demand for new industrial space contracted by more than 6% compared to the same period last year, raising concerns among Chinese manufacturers about the protectionist measures planned by Donald Trump , the president-elect of the United States.
On the other hand, companies such as Mercado Libre , Bosch and Lego are investing in developments of high technical complexity and great economic impact. “These companies invest a lot in their buildings: although a logistics building seems ‘just a shell’, Mercado Libre invests between 25 and 30 million dollars in each of its regional distribution centers.”
The industrial trend in Mexico remains strong and with prospects of staying high in the coming years, due to nearshoring . In this context, Silvestre Aguilera , Business Development Director at ESCALA, highlighted the continuity of investments such as those of BMW, Volvo and Toyota , the latter with an outlay of 1.45 billion pesos in Tijuana, Baja California.
The hotel sector is also showing significant growth, especially in destinations such as Los Cabos, Riviera Nayarit, Merida and Cancun, and in the southeast, the infrastructure developed last year, such as the Mayan Train , has been an important catalyst. “Everything that was done in infrastructure for Merida and Cancun helps a lot in this development hub, benefiting both the hotel industry and the industrial trend that is beginning to move towards that region,” said Aguilera.
Accelerated growth also brings challenges, especially in infrastructure. The executive warned that mega developments are putting pressure on essential resources such as energy, water and transportation. Another challenge is the availability of qualified labor, said Aguilera, who said that sustainability is taking a central role in the development of projects.
According to ESCALA, despite the shocks that marked 2024, such as political uncertainty and changes in global economic dynamics, the Mexican industrial sector showed resilience.
“In general terms, the net absorption of space, that is, the difference between what is occupied and what is vacated, will be four to five million square meters (m²) more, a figure lower than in 2023, although gross absorption shows a substantial increase compared to the same year. The year 2024 had less activity than 2023 due to the ‘scares’, but in general it was a good year for the industry,” said Javier Llaca.
According to ESCALA’s analysis, the Bajío continues to represent an opportunity for investors and companies looking for industrial space as a result of the relocation of companies in Mexico, as well as the logistics and industrial sector.
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