In the fourth quarter of 2024, global merchandise trade continued to grow at a moderate pace, with container shipping being the indicator that improved the most, although possible changes in policies in this area project an “uncertain” outlook for 2025, revealed the Merchandise Trade Barometer published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) .
The indicator, which provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends, stood, according to its most recent reading, at 102.7 points , i.e. above the quarterly trade volume index.
According to the WTO, barometer values greater than 100 indicate an upward trend, while values below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
In this regard, the agency indicated that all the component indices of the barometer remain within the trend or above it, with the exception of the electronic components index, which had 95.4 points in said period .
In contrast, the index for container shipping showed the greatest improvement, reaching 105.8 points . This was followed by automotive products with 104 points , and air freight transport with 102.9 points .
The container shipping index showed the biggest improvement over the past three months, while the air freight index lost momentum. Export orders, which are typically the most predictive of the barometer’s components, remain very close to the reference value of 100, the WTO said.
Meanwhile, the section on export orders and trade in raw materials and agricultural products had an index of 100.5 points in the aforementioned period.
According to the latest WTO forecasts, trade volume growth in 2024 is expected to be 2.7% , while growth in 2025 is expected to be 3% .
The latest forecast showed modest changes globally compared to the previous forecast in April. Exports from Asian economies and imports from North American countries grew faster than expected in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, European trade flows continued to decline in both export and import sectors, the barometer showed.
Despite growth in most indicators, the WTO warned that there could be some changes in trade policy, including possible tariff conflicts between the United States and some of its partners by 2025.
In this regard, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) also foresees an uncertain environment for the following year, despite having projected a record for world trade of 33 trillion dollars in 2024.
It is worth remembering that the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump , has threatened Mexico and Canada with imposing 25% tariffs , which puts at risk the review of the trade agreement between these three countries, known as the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) for 2026.
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