BX+ Financial Group presented its analysis of economic prospects for Mexico , highlighting a complicated outlook for 2024 and 2025.
Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist at the firm, warned of slowing growth, persistent institutional uncertainties and structural adjustments that will limit economic expansion.
“We will hardly be able to sustain the rebound observed in the third quarter of 2023. Monetary and fiscal conditions are not helping growth, and uncertainty remains a significant brake on investment,” Saldaña said at a press conference.
In this regard, the financial group revised downwards the GDP growth projections for 2024 and 2025 , placing them at 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively, after 3.2% in 2023.
Moreover, although the labour market has shown resilience, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, wages are growing faster than productivity, creating inflationary pressures.
In this way, the specialist pointed out that, although inflation could close at 4.5% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025, it will continue to be a challenge for the economy .
In the stock market sector, analyst Alejandra Vargas indicated that the Price and Quotation Index (IPC) presents an attractive assessment for long-term investors , with a discount of 17.6% compared to its historical average.
However, the projected closing price for 2024 is 52,250 points, reflecting a drop compared to previous estimates. “It is an opportunity for those who can take risks amid volatility,” said Vargas.
Private consumption faces a mixed outlook. Ariel Méndez, a consumer and stock market analyst for the firm, highlighted a 7.5% contraction in 2023, although the increase in the minimum wage could sustain certain segments in 2024.
Meanwhile, the financial sector showed revenue growth of 14.8% , but a moderation is anticipated for next year.
Experts also pointed out that external factors, such as the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States , could intensify the pressure on Mexico, affecting trade relations and other bilateral aspects.
“It is a challenging environment, but not a catastrophic one. Mexican companies have solid fundamentals, and investors will find long-term opportunities,” Vargas concluded.
Experts agreed that, although the outlook is uncertain, Mexico has elements of stability that can cushion some economic impacts in the coming years.
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